A Prediction For Cyclone Ului

I've lived in Rockhampton since 1988 (which nearly makes me a local). I've seen the 1983 floods in Central Queensland. The 1988 floods in Rocky (I lived next to the Ski Gardens Park at the time). In 1991, I was living in a house in Margaret Street. Up the road the local pub had a metre of water through it. Down the road, the BP servo was under about 2 metres of water. We were relatively dry.

The 1991 flood was a combination of torrential rain for two weeks prior to Cyclone Joy crossing the coast and dumping copious amounts of rain onto the Northern and Western parts of the Fitzroy River catchment (the second largest catchment area for one River in Australia). In 1991 the flood peaked at 9.3 metres. Prior to that, only two floods have been higher, 1954 was 9.4 metres, while the big flood of 1918 reached 10.11 metres. The biggest high tides reach about 5 metres, so you can understand the damage that occurs in a City that is not too far above sea level.

Currently we are in a stage where the Fitzroy catchment river are at minor flood levels. We've had a lot of rain to fill the lagoons and lakes around the city, as well as waterlogging the soil. If Cyclone Ului crosses the coast in a similar manner to Cyclone Joy, then I reckon Rocky could see one of the biggest floods in our history. All the markers are there. BoM is tentatively predicting a Westerly movement from Thursday. The track may push it towards the coast somewhere not too far North of us...

Maybe I'm being sensationalist, but the potential is there. We're well overdue for a major flood.